Curtail to Compute: Why Fresno Is the Cheapest Place to Run GPUs

On March 10, 2026, the think tank Next 10 and researchers at the University of Pennsylvania published a report that could reshape where AI data centers are built in California. It's called "Curtail to Compute," and it makes a compelling case for putting data centers exactly where Daylite is building: Fresno County.

What Is Solar Curtailment?

Curtailment happens when the electricity grid can't absorb all the solar energy being generated. Solar farms produce power, but if the transmission lines to cities are full, that power has nowhere to go. The grid operator (CAISO) tells generators to reduce output. The energy is effectively thrown away.

In 2024, California curtailed 3.4 million MWh— enough to power 500,000 homes. And it's growing 29% year over year.

Why Fresno County?

The report identifies PG&E's "Fresno Zone" as having the highest curtailment in the state. The critical bottleneck is Path 15, a transmission corridor through rural Fresno County that connects Southern California solar generation to Northern California demand.

By 2039, Path 15 is projected to be congested 84% of the year — over 7,300 hours. That means solar energy in this zone will be increasingly stranded.

The Economics

The report's key numbers:

• $94 million cheaper to build a 20 MW data center in Fresno vs Silicon Valley
• Land: $150K/acre vs $2.5M in Santa Clara (94% cheaper)
• Solar energy available for 54% of the year
• Investor ROI: 28% (Fresno) vs 15% (urban)

The Seasonal Reality

Curtailment is highly seasonal. The report shows that in April, curtailment between 9am and 4pm can exceed 190 MWh/day. But in August, it barely reaches 20 MWh — because air conditioning absorbs the solar output.

This means a curtailment-powered data center gets near-free energy in spring, but runs mostly on grid power in late summer and winter. The blended annual savings are real (~40% cheaper than Bay Area grid), but the advantage is concentrated in spring months.

What This Means for AI

The report recommends establishing "curtailment compute zones" where data centers can absorb stranded energy. This is exactly what Daylite is doing — but specifically for AI inference, served to Bay Area developers at 5ms latency via dark fiber.

As curtailment grows (29% per year), the economic advantage of this approach only gets stronger. The energy that nobody can use today becomes the cheapest compute available tomorrow.

Read the Full Report

The full "Curtail to Compute" report is available at next10.org/publications/curtail-to-compute.